November/December 1998
Articles on the theme "Family & Friends"
A Family Role Model
by Ethel Gillette
An account of how Bill Cosby in his
Cosby Show provided a much needed and inspiring example of real family values.
We're All Related
by Bob Gonzalez
Expanding one's view of family and friends to include the realization that
we are all one spirit.
A Soulful Season
by Edwina Holloway
Some suggestions for making the holiday
season more truly meaningful.
The Magic of our Differences
by Rev. Pat Cross
Friends and family - the ultimate gifts
of God's creation. Our human differences and our essential oneness.
Extend Your Family
by Cydné Battreall
If your current family does not meet
your needs, extend it! How to go about it.
The Family of Friends
by Sylvia Jackson
What it takes to be a friend and to
have a friend. True friendship in adversity.
Beyond Family and Friends
by ISA
The true solution to the need for family
and friends.
The Power of Our Thoughts
by Dr. Audrey Craft Davis
How we can use our thoughts to protect
ourselves and those we love.
Other Feature Articles
Natural Health Q&A
by David Simon M.Ac.
A practical discussion of the why's
and how's of weight loss.
2000 and Beyond!
by David Findlay
Mineral Kingdom
by Judy Power
Featured stones for November and December:
Lapis and Amethyst.
What is . . . Olestra?
by Susan Moyers
A fat-free "fat" that may
not be such a good idea after all.
2000 & Beyond
Y2K = TEOTWAWKI?
A Forum with Editor's Comments
David Findlay, Editor
TEOTWAWKI = The End Of The World As We Know It -- pronounced "tee-OH-tawa-kee"-- internet slang
As announced in the last issue, this new section 2000 and Beyond is intended as a forum for debate. Your contributions are invited -- anything from a letter to a short article (1,000 words maximum).
I wrote about Y2K -- otherwise known as the "millennium bug" or the "millennium bomb".
I'm only a few months old to a serious study of this issue, but, quite honestly, the more I study, the more serious it looks.
Not that I'm trying to scare you.
I believe that, if there is a problem, it is better to face it -- sooner rather than later! This is not panic-mongering but simple common sense.
Imagine yourself in a crowded sports stadium and through the public address system you get the message: "We have been warned that there is a bomb in the stadium about to detonate in 5 minutes -- you are requested to vacate the stadium in an orderly manner. PLEASE DO NOT PANIC!"
What do you think would happen?
Panic -- big time! The problem: it's obvious that in 5 minutes only a few people are going to be able to get out.
So, the earlier the warning, the more time one has to make preparations -- and avoid panic.
On November 18th there are only 400 days left to the year 2000. 400 days means 285 work days (not counting holidays). So time is running out.
I received a number of comments on my article.
I am going to print in full a letter from Ginger Haskins of ThunderLink Communication in Tampa. It gives a very clear account of the problem. Thanks Ginger. And thanks too to the other readers who have sent in their comments, called or e-mailed me.
Letter from Ginger Haskins
First of all, I cannot believe that you actually led everyone who reads your publication to believe that Gary North is a "crackpot." Those of us who are knowledgeable about the Y2K problem are aware that Dr. North does portray the extremist view. However, that is not to say that he is a "crackpot." He just may turn out to be the only sane person on the face of the planet. He is certainly a survivor and one who will, most likely, survive the coming disaster. Dr. North has created a wonderful web site chock full of information relating to Y2K. One of the best areas on his site contains on-line forums where you can learn about all phases of surviving Y2K as well as correspond with other people who are trying to make sense of this problem and how they can prepare. He keeps the site updated almost daily with news about Y2K. His home page is at: http://www.garynorth.com.
It is obvious that you are new to this problem and still in some state of denial. I realize that it is difficult to comprehend the magnitude of the problem. Everyone will "get it" at their own pace. The problem with that is they may not have time to do anything about it, once they "get it." The 76 weeks you talked about in your article is closing in on us very quickly. Most companies, that are working on becoming Y2K compliant, are not working overtime to do so. By the time you take out weekends and holidays, we have very little time left. Here's an explanation of the problem in a nutshell that may help people to understand the complexity of it:
(Excepted from "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?" by John L. Petersen, Margaret Wheatley, Myron Kellner-Rogers. Complete text can be found at http://www.year2OOO.com/archive/social.html)
For the last thirty years thousands of programmers have been writing billions of lines of software code for the computers on which the world's economy and society now depend. Y2K reporter Ed Meagher describes 'old, undocumented code written in over 2500 different computer languages and executed on thousands of different hardware platforms being controlled by hundreds of different operating systems. . . [that generate] further complexity in the form of billions of six character date fields stored in millions of databases that are used in calculations.' The Gartner Group, a computer-industry research group, estimates that globally, 180 billion lines of software code will have to be screened. Peter de Jager notes that it is not unusual for a company to have more than 100,000,000 lines of code -- the IRS, for instance, has at least eighty million lines. The Social Security Administration began working on its thirty million lines of code in 1991. After five years of work, in June, 1996, four hundred programmers had fixed only six million lines. The IRS has 88,000 programs on 80 mainframe computers to debug. By the end of last year they had cleaned up 2,000 programs. Capers Jones, head of Software Productivity Research, a firm that tracks programmer productivity, estimates that finding, fixing and testing all Y2K-affected software would require over 700,000 person-years. Programmers have been brought out of retirement and are receiving extraordinary wages and benefits to stick with this problem, but we are out of time. There aren't nearly enough programmers nor hours remaining before January 1, 2000.
Here are some facts that may also help your readers to better understand the problem:
· There is no "silver bullet." The problem will not be resolved by someone coming up with a miraculous software or hardware solution. There are too many variables and it simply cannot happen. There are programs with fixes for specific problems but there is not and cannot be a cure all.
· The people that are being the most vocal about all of this are the people that are closest to the problem. The programmers and people working to fix it. It they are terrified, I guarantee you, we should be too.
· In addition to the problem with software programs, there are millions (maybe billions) of embedded computer chips in all kinds of places that most people don't even relate to a computer. I have seen failure figures for these chips ranging from 1% - 10%. Regardless of which figure you choose to believe, that is still millions of systems that will be affected. Systems like elevators, heating and cooling systems, underwater drilling rigs, etc.
· The NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) will, most likely, shut down all of the nuclear power plants in the country prior to midnight December 31, 1999. If they don't, we may be in even more serious trouble with the possibility of melt downs. These plants supply 20% of the nation's power and 40% of the power east of the Mississippi.
· If the power grid goes down (which is very likely at this point in time), communication will, essentially, cease and, as a result, supply lines will stop. If supply lines stop the supermarkets will be empty with 72 hours (assuming normal shopping pace). However, they will also be crippled because they will not have power either.
· Major suppliers of bulk food are averaging a 6 month backlog at the present time (Sept. 1998). Some say they may not be able to ship the orders they have received to date by the end of 1999. Some people who placed orders in February of 1998 are having problems getting their orders already (including Gary North!).
· Most airlines have stated they will not be booking flights during the changeover to the year 2,000 as they fear air traffic control and onboard flight systems may not function correctly.
· There are several different ways to correct the software problem. Unfortunately, they are not compatible with one another. Therefore, if all programs aren't corrected in the same manner, they may not be able to communicate with one another and/or they could potentially "reinfect" the other system. In other words, even the fixes we are making to the systems today probably will cause more problems, as there is no standard and everyone is doing their own thing. This is a part of the problem most people fail to realize or understand. I hope I've stated it in a way that is clear to everyone.
· The US Treasury Department announced recently that it will be printing billions of dollars worth of Federal Reserve notes in case people start taking money out of the banks. You see, currently we only use cash for about 8% of our spending and if people decide to hoard their money, there won't be enough to go around.
· 17 of the Federal government agencies will not be ready by 2000. Some won't be ready until 2019!!
I could go on and on about the sheer complexity of this problem and how it will undoubtedly affect all of us. If I do nothing else with this writing, I simply want to impress upon you how serious this problem really is. Please don't ignore it and make your readers understand that it is not going away, we cannot move the deadline and they can't wait until tomorrow to worry about it. They must prepare now because it is already too late!!
As for Senator Bennet's comments in the Press Club speech that he is not heading for the hills and believes we can win . . .
First of all, he is a politician and, as such, will never say anything to cause panic. He has to stay optimistic to the public. However, I would bet that he has a contingency plan in place. Remember, he also told them he reserved the right to change his mind.
He also stated that we are currently only working on "mission critical" systems and that it was up to the business heads to determine which systems are "mission critical." There are simply too many variables when it comes to human behavior in this equation to believe that everyone is going to work together and get the job done. Additionally, if they are only working on "mission critical" systems, we're already toast!!
I have been working on my contingency plan for a couple of months now. I wish I had realized the severity of this problem long ago. I only have myself to blame though because I've been in the computer business for 25 years and knew about the problem long ago. I just didn't research it until recently and, like so many others, assumed that everyone was working on it and it would be fixed.
Sincerely,
Ginger Haskins, ThunderLink Communications
Tampa FL (813) 935-775, E-mail: hosting@thunderlink.com
PS: Please tell your readers that they can receive an excellent FREE audio cassette called Y2K CPR by going to <www.y2knet.com.>
Editor's Comments
I do not consider Gary North to be a crackpot. That was just my British sense of humor! As I pointed out, the IRS Commissioner, Charles Rossotti, and Senator Robert Bennett, chairman of the Senate's Year 2000 Committee, were saying things just as scary -- if not more so, considering the source.
Gary North does present an extreme, worst case scenario. But the trouble is he may be right!
So, I would definitely recommend anyone to study what Gary North has to say. As Ginger mentions, his web site www.garynorth.com has a number of very interesting links.
If you don't have internet access, a good investment is Gary North's book, "Wealth in the Year 2000," which is a compilation from his newsletter "Remnant Review". It is available from: Remnant Review, 1217 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. (800) 433-1528. It costs $16.95.
Be warned. It does present an extreme, apocalyptic view.
For more moderate but still informed views, your best source is the internet. If you can't get on the internet consider joining a local study group. Check the end of this section for details.
The Nation's Power Grid
The whole Y2K issue is so vast and has so many ramifications, that there is a real limit space-wise as to what I can say.
To illustrate the seriousness of the situation, I'm going to focus on one particular area: the nation's power grid . . . our electricity supply.
I am sure you have considered what you would do in the event of a hurricane -- and weren't we lucky with Georges! You probably have some candles and extra batteries.
Are you -- or rather, are we -- prepared for serious outages?
I won't start with what Gary North has to say -- after all he is even by his own admission an extremist. But what does the government have to say?
Who better to go to once again than Senator Robert Bennett, chairman of the Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem? If anyone knows what the problems are, surely he does?
On June 12, 1998 he made his opening statement as part of the Hearing on the risks of Y2K on the nation's power grid.
"I have some disturbing news to report this morning. In order to prepare for today's hearing, I directed Committee staff to conduct a survey. The survey was of modest proportions including ten of the largest electric, oil and gas utility firms in the U.S. I wanted to know what the status the their Y2K preparedness is. . .
"I had anticipated that I would be able to provide a positive report on the Y2K status of these public utilities. Instead based on the results of this survey, I am genuinely concerned about the very real prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change. . .
"Only 20 percent of the firms surveyed had completed an assessment of their automated systems. One firm did not even know how many lines of computer code it had. Experts have testified before my banking subcommittee that a major firm that has not already completed its assessment cannot hope to become Y2K compliant by January 1, 2000. . . [italics mine]
"None of the utilities surveyed was assured after making inquiries that their suppliers, venders, and servicers would by Y2K compliant. . .
"None of the firms surveyed had completed contingency plans for Y2K related eventualities. . ."
And this is as of June 12, 1998!!
What has the federal government been doing up to now? Effectively nothing!
Senator Bennett is saying it is too late! "A major firm that has not already completed its assessment cannot hope to become Y2K compliant by January 1, 2000."
And, in case you think it's not too late -- and remember, this is according to our top government spokesperson on the subject . . . in other words right from the horse's mouth -- Senator Bennett adds:
"The last question on our survey asked for recommendations. One respondent, after making several recommendations made the following profound statement: 'Whatever actions are taken by Congress, they must be done quickly, during this session, or they will have no impact on the Y2K problem.'" [italics mine]
Now, you may ask, "How does this affect us locally?"
I don't know how Florida Power or TECO are doing. Hope to have more information on that soon.
However, that's not really the point.
The national power grid is a network. One area in an emergency helps another.
Gary North comments: "Last year, sections of the national power grid were short-circuited, twice, On July 3, a tree fell on a power line in Idaho, power went down locally, and the Western grid responded. Power blew out all over the West. When it was over, 500,000 California homes were without power for days, 700,000 in Nevada, and tens of thousands in the Rockies. An expensive tree!"
If that can be caused by a tree, think of what could happen if a number of power plants across the country simultaneously run into problems.
Again to quote Gary North: "If the whole grid goes down, local systems will not be able to supply power to systems that are down. Every regional system depends on the others to supply power to reboot it if it goes down. [my italics] But an overload condition could hit them all. How can they reboot the components of the system if the system itself is down? Or if most of the components are down?"
Scary?
One thing is obvious: the federal government is not going to solve the problem for us. It's too late. Let's hope that our local power companies are doing their best to prepare for Y2K. And let's as individuals and as a community prepare to minimize the problems caused by power shortages which, at this stage, appear inevitable.
What to do?
All this may sound very depressing and you may be asking, "What can I do about it all?"
I feel that we need to treat Y2K like the threat of a hurricane. However, there is one big difference. We know quite a lot about hurricanes and hurricane tracking. Nothing like Y2K has ever hit us before.
My suggestions are as follows:
(a) Study the problem. If you can, get on the internet. If not, join a study group, or link up with some people who have internet access.
(b) Make up your own mind, after studying the problem, as to the severity of the dangers. I suggest using a 1-10 scale, with 1 being no problem and 10 being total collapse of society as we know it. Figure out where you are on this scale.
Here's a sketchy 1-10 scale that I've made up. Use this model if you like or, better still, make your own.
1. Things continue much as they are now.
2. Growing public awareness and nervousness. Some people pulling their money out of the stock market. The current recessionary trend worsening.
3. A confirmed recession. An increasing trend for people to move their assets from stocks, real estate etc. into safer and more liquid forms -- T bills, money market accounts, and especially cash. People starting to stockpile consumable goods.
4. Minor, short-term breakdowns affecting some public services, power, water, sewage, transportation, ATM machines, telephones etc.
5. Major but intermittent breakdowns of many public services etc. Some smaller, unprepared companies going bankrupt. Lay-offs by larger companies. Public getting very nervous -- only spending on essentials.
6. The recession becomes a depression. Many people out of work. An increase in crime. More frequent breakdowns of many public services.
7. Food shortages, especially in cities. Escalating criminality -- some rioting. Some government restrictions. Bank runs -- restrictions on bank withdrawals.
8. Severe prolonged breakdown of many public services. Public starting to panic. Banks closed. The government steps in to maintain law and order.
9. Some starvation, especially in cities. Widespread chaos and crime. Martial law.
10. A complete breakdown of most public services. Crime and looting by gangs. Martial law no longer effective.
(c) Depending on where you place yourself on this 1-10 scale, make a plan. If you figure that the seriousness is a 4 or 5, make your plan for a 5 or 6. Run some what-if scenarios as to what you would do in the case of a 7 or 8.
In the next issue, we'll discuss planning in some detail. There is a lot that one can do, both as individuals and as a community. Talking of planning, check out the ad for the Yes 2 Kommunity SYNCOM with Barbara Marx Hubbard. If you'd like to help with this event, give us a call.
Join our new study group (especially if you're not on the net)
Scheduled for Nov/Dec: Monday Nov 16, Monday Dec 7, Monday Dec 21. Time: 6:30-7:30 pm. Location: 575 Duncan Ave. S., Clearwater, FL. RSVP required as seating limited. (Also if meeting gets too large, we'll move to another location.)
Call (727) 449-8964 or e-mail <david@altnewtimes.com.
Hope to see you!